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Coin flips: streaks and biased probabilities

Distinguish the fair setting from a setting favoring one side.

Randomchik editorial team

Check the mode

The tool has a bias setting. The neutral model gives each side a 50% probability; a heads or tails advantage sets the favored side's target probability to 72%. Show the setting to participants before a draw. The name 'coin flip' does not prove the neutral mode is selected.

After a streak of heads

In an independent model, previous results do not create a debt to the other side. After several heads, tails still has a 50% chance in neutral mode. The claim that tails is now due is a reasoning error. Long streaks and frequent alternation are both possible.

Agree on decision rules

Before flipping, define what each side means and how many flips determine the final decision. Repeating until a preferred answer appears changes the selection rule. Do not use an entertainment coin flip as the basis for medical, financial or other consequential decisions.

Questions and answers

Is it always 50/50?

Only in neutral mode. Favoring a side changes the probability.

Is tails more likely after heads?

No. With independent flips, the setting determines the probability, not the previous result.

Sources and methodology

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